Bitcoin continues it's year long slide from all time highs, finally having broken the long-term trend line that has served as support over the last 48 months. BTC bulls were able to defend the $6000 price range for several months before finally losing out to the bears relentless selling pressure on November 14th.
Since then Bitcoins value has plunged as low as $3200, falling under the support created by the long term uptrend (indicated by the blue dashed line) BTC has enjoyed since the end of the 2015 bear market. Bulls have failed to overcome what has now become resistance in the former supporting trend line, with dwindling volume indicating the bears may be able to push the price further down into the order block from $2-3k.
The continued decline of the market value for bitcoin has left many investors struggling with their positions. Traders and investors who just 12 months ago were interested in acquiring more bitcoin at $7-10k are battling with concerns that their previous investments will result in further losses. The maxim of "buy the dip" is no longer as vocally audible on crypto social media. Likewise silent are the "When Moon?" and "When Lambo?" cryptocurrency buyers, as the entire market has lost upwards of $190B USD since February 2018. Many who discovered cryptocurrency in 2017 or 2018 have already fled the space, siting unsustainable losses or lack of confidence in the overall value of the asset.
This begs the question whether those people were truly interested in the technology, or merely involved for short term profits enjoyed by many in 2017. Even with its recent regression in valuation bitcoin remains the most secure payment protocol on the planet, and one of the highest performing asset classes available. Bitcoin enjoys the largest development community in cryptocurrency, as well as the longest blockchain making it nearly impossible to 51% attack.
Rumors of financial institutions purchasing large sums of bitcoin over the counter contributes to enduring retail investor confidence, and the expectation is that approval of an ETF or clearly defined guidelines from the SEC will spur a market turn around and restore bullish sentiment.
So, When Bottom?
Timing the market is incredibly difficult, as seasoned traders will attest. Technical Analysis shows very weak support in the $3000 range, with the price already flirting with the bottom of the order block at the time of this writing. Declining overall volume, coupled with inability for bulls to overcome resistance created by the long-term trend line indicate further downside ahead, with the likelihood of a weak bounce to 3600 before resuming the downtrend. If bitcoin fails to close the daily candle above $3500 we fully expect to see it reach $3000 before weeks end.
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